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tv   Asia Edge  Bloomberg  September 13, 2015 11:00pm-12:01am EDT

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the most loans since 2008 -- most bad loans since 2008. a u.s. rate hike could be a boost for asia as the chinese economy struggles. rishaad: the singapore government getting back to work after a resounding election victory. japanese mobile covers -- carriers plunge. and privacy for profits. to the talk about -- chief executive of a company that vows to keep your communication safe. all that and more on this monday edition of "asia edge." : we are seeing again across the asia-pacific. hong kong is leading the way. --t is due to the investor the sentiment that china will come up with additional stimulus. everyone watching very closely. they tell us what we have been seeing for the past two months,
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the slowdown in china continues. the shanghai composite down 1%. it started the day higher, now reversing course, lower by about 1% in the session. gains in australia. the asx 200 up by 1/2 of 1%. the topix moving as well. the singapore strait times index is down by 1/3 of 1%. a lot of movement in the telecom space. and some of the tech names moving. pioneer is up nearly 4%. 5.4%.ta, technology is a theme in the markets. as you look at the hang seng in hong kong, lenovo one of the big movers in the session. tech defying the overall trend in the market today, which is "wait and see." we wait for the fed and the bank
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of japan tomorrow. shery: chinese companies are building up debt at the fastest pace in three years as it gets harder for them to finance growth. with efforts to rebalance the chinese economy, right? exactly. for the nonfinancial chinese corporations in the past 12 months, a record high. that's the size of the economy of indonesia. that is despite li keqiang's efforts -- shery: how is the outlook? >> it is not a very bright picture. it is more than double the amount of yuriko. -- amount a year ago. adjusted for market cap, it grew to a six-year high. 11 companies had a ratio
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exceeding 1000%. shery: that's not good for these corporations. we have global headwinds, including the glow down -- including the slowdown globally. >> and exports in august were declining for the second month in a row. we saw the official pmi was the slowest reading in three years. fixed asset investments was lowest in 15 years. that's adding to the headwinds. also, bank funding costs for private, smaller companies in china were down 17% versus the benchmark rate of about 4.6 per -- 4.6%. shery: is this going to exacerbate the pessimism? >> exactly. if you look at banks, it is the highest in a few years, and banks are getting more reluctant to lend or refinance. we will see more failures if banks don't get over the debts. shery: it's another thing to watch as we watch china's
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economy slowdown. thank you for joining us on that. china has been on top of agendas. investor says he is not worried about the state of the chinese economy. >> we have a reality check. during the global financial crisis, when china mobilized a lot of capital to prevent a slowdown, the government now being more cautious. they could put a lot more money into the economy if they wanted to, but they don't want to do what they have done before. they don't want to make the same mistake twice. they are allowing the economy to slow. they are allowing some restructuring to take place. they are not panicking at this point. rishaad: we also heard another outlook for the country. investors should be watching how china reforms its state owned enterprises.
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>> it is far more important than dropped a little bit. these short-term, cyclical things -- we should not be paying that much attention to them. the government is not paying that much attention. they are focused on the long-term, structural stuff. this is what we should be talking about. this is what investors should be talking about. this is where the real risks and benefits are. we have totally lost our focus. we are all on the short-term cyclical stuff. where are we going to be in the next month? irrelevant. rishaad: and we have been talking about the fed and what they do later this week. ubs management saying a rate hike is still a possibility. data,think that the especially for the u.s., suggests that the september move is more likely. market,ok at the labor
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unemployment is firmly within the long-term outlook for the fed and payrolls have been consistently over 200,000. i think that's what they want to see. the only argue that aspect not falling in line completely is inflation. rishaad: just days before the federal reserve's most critical policy decision in years, wall street seems to be divided over what it will be and whether it will happen. su keenan has a look at the week ahead. su: the week ahead on wall street will be all about wall street and the fed policy meters -- members. based on last week's trading, it appears much of the market is in a wait and see mode. trading was marked by light volume. that signals confusion around what the fed is going to do. this is one of the first fed decisions in which there is no
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consensus, particularly among the professionals. we have one hedge fund titan saying a rate increase could prove an "epic blunder." a researcher at goldman sachs is out with a report saying the market may take a pass on raising rates. the rise in the dollar has already tightened conditions the equivalent of three 25 basis point rate hikes. if you look at where traders are putting futures right now, they are pricing in a 28% chance of the fed starting to hike rates, down from some 48% right before the chinese currency devaluation . there is a 59% chance they will raise rates by december. on tuesday, right ahead of the meeting, we will get the latest retail sales data, which economists say probably gained
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in august, while consumer prices are expected to be little changed. shery: let's get back to the markets right now. markets. and currency zeb eckert has the latest. banks will watch the currency markets closely. we will be watching the direction of gold in its relationship to the dollar. let's start off with the u.s. dollar index. the dollar under pressure little bit today. about 1/10 of 1% move. seeing the move with the commodity currencies. check out the aussie. the australian dollar on a one-day basis trading higher, even with bad data out of china. the high-yield there's moving today. -- the high-yielders moving today. the korean won, you want to watch these. take a close look at the japanese yen. 1.2044,is at
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strengthening to the tune of about one/10 of 1%. 1%.bout 1/10 of there is an inverse relationship between the yen and the japanese equity markets because of the offshore earnings that must be repatriated. quite an interesting move in gold and crude oil. crude oil -- take a look at the london benchmark, brent. it is under pressure somewhat. down by about 1%. let's look at a one-week basis. againcrude is registering -- a gain. crude oil in new york -- you are seeing generally a similar mood. gold, precious metal, we watch this closely. given the fed may rate hike this week or may not, gold is used as an inflation hedge.
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it is continuing this slump. now at $1109 per ounce, down about 1%. let's take a look at commodity movers across the asia-pacific today. just to give you a quick look at how among these are moving. -- how commodities are moving. oil and gas stocks are down. these are your big movers. crude oil is falling. news with respect to operations in australia. rishaad: thanks. let's turn to some of the other stories we are watching. the reserve bank of india is expecting another benign inflation report for august. inflation is expected to slow for the second month. broadcasting cpi to coming in at just -- it was nearly 3.8% in february.
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the cpi target is 6% by january, 2016. new contract with autoworkers. the uaw looking for the first wage increase in about a decade. the contract expires at midnight. the workers accepting cuts to help automakers recover from them -- the financial crisis. they say that strong sales means companies can now make concessions. they will make deals with chrysler -- the deal they make with chrysler will set up the deals with gm and ford. loss.ual $317 million some six years worth of earnings. the president of toshiba was appointed after his predecessor quit during the accounting scandal. he is seeking to regain investor trust. shery: coming up, using mobile
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phones in japan may soon be cheaper, but some investors are clear me not happy. we have a special report -- are clearly not happy. we have a special report. guest explainsxt why japan, china, the u.s., and india should be considered in p arallel. ♪
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rishaad: let's check on some of the stories making headlines around the world. a volcanic irruption on japan's mount aso. the volcano is on the southernmost main island. authorities have raised the 2 to 3 on afrom scale of 5. it has rumbled to life several times over the past year after decades of lying dormant. japan is part of the ring of fire.
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radioactive waste was washed away from the fukushima plant in last week's heavy flooding. some of the bags were torn and empty when they were recovered. were stuck on sandbars and could not be collected until water levels fell. germany is reinstating border controls for the first time -- reinstating border controls with austria for the first time in 20 years. trains have been suspended until about 45 minutes from now. interior minister says that the border controls are needed to ensure an orderly process for entering the country. european ministers meet in brussels later today to discuss resettlement of the refugees. shery: let's check back in on the markets with simon cox, an investment strategist at bny mellon. you said investors should start to think about four major
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economies in a different way than ever before. tell us a little bit about it. simon: i have been looking at four of the world's biggest economies, japan, india, china, and the u.s. is striking -- it is striking. big powersf asia's have these leaders who talk a good game on economic reform. that is what attracted our interest at the same time the u.s. recovery seemed to be gaming some momentum -- be gaining some momentum. we looked at these economies in parallel. it's unusual to do that. all four is ambitious. these economies account for about 45% of the world's gdp. if you can understand these, your understanding half the world. rishaad: they are very diverse. you can't compare india with japan and japan can't compare with china and china can't
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compare with india. you could probably compare japan with the u.s., to some extent. simon: we think all of these economies have looked other ones in history for inspiration. india is trying to emulate chinese manufacturing success. china has based a lot of its economic strategy over the past decades on japan's industrial revolution. japan looked to america for inspiration in the early years. they started trading ideas. there have been times in their history where they have seen continually -- continuity between their experiences. the more immediate question is how all of them deal with underperformance, low growth, under inflation -- low growth, inflation, and room to recover. rishaad: india has only recently had a problem. they are addressing it. simon: that inflation has fallen much faster than people expected.
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i think india's previous problem with stagflation, low growth and embedded inflationary psychology -- all four have benefited from stronger spending, stronger demand. question is whether they will get it. shery: looking to other countries and their cycles of history, is there something that helps us get a clear picture of what the future holds? china marches by the beat of their own drum, especially in the latest market volatility. they have done things that no other really major economy did at the age of their market sophistication. simon: yes. i tried to look at china within the framework of orthodox economics. it iseople will say that a command economy with growth targets. they look --
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all economies have implicit growth targets. they are all managing -- maximizing employment without letting inflation get out of hand. that's what china is doing. what distinguishes china is that they are little bit less inhibited about putting the monetary tools together. that's been more effective than as we saw in japan or in the u.s. you can learn from different analogies, from both differences and similarities. rishaad: we will have time in about 20 minutes. shery: coming up next, woodside shares take the hit after its bid for oil search is rejected. rishaad: we will have a look at all of this when" returns -- when "asia edge" returns. ♪
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shery: welcome back. you are watching "asia edge." stories we are tracking for you -- macquariehares -- shares are near the highest in a month in sydney, up nearly 2%. 40% boost in first-half profit. they expect income to be higher than the previous year, driven by increased performance and higher client risk appetite.
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mcquarrie is due to report at the end of october -- macquarie is due to report at the end of october. the national bureau of es show the figur output of crude steel rose to almost 60 million metric tons. production is still down from a year earlier as the global industry struggles with excess supply. more cars hit the road in china over the summer, meaning the country had to process more crude to keep up with the band -- with demand. refining rose. gasoline production was near a record high in july, up 17% from a year ago. rishaad: just take a look at woodside shares as they fall in sydney. the bid for oil search was rejected.
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paul allen is in sydney. it would have been the asia-pacific's biggest energy takeover. knock this search deal back? it wasn't that much of a surprise, was it? paul: not really, no. the answer to the first half of the question was not enough money. the writing was on the wall last week. was due to have a meeting with woodside on sunday but called it off because the deal was not going to go ahead. oil search said that the deal was highly opportunistic and grossly undervalued the company. woodside said it was surprised and disappointed the deal did not go through. the conservative position of the papua new guinea government, which has a 10% stake in oil
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search -- the offer was less than what their stake. for rishaad: the bond market did not like this either, did it? paul: not really. the day this offer was announced, the cost of insuring woodside's $1 billion in debt widened by eight basis points. the yield premium was out at 264 basis points which was quite stunning. woodside is rated triple b plus. there are other companies with worse credit ratings who have less risky debt. the bond market took a particularly dim view of this, as did the stock market. woodside shares down, although they recovered a little in later trading. rishaad: thank you, paul allen. shery: let's check in on trading right now across the asia-pacific. to australia, where we are seeing slight fractional gains
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right now. macquarie, one of the big leaders on the board today. that's a live look of the sydney opera house. as investors weighed week chinese -- weighed weak chinese production. down close to 6/10 of 1%. in hong kong, it is a clear, beautiful day. that is green optimism to investors, just -- that is bringing optimism to investors, just slightly higher. looking forward to the afternoon business from tokyo. we will get the latest on japan's reopening after this short break. you are watching "asia edge." ♪ the only way to get better is to challenge yourself,
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and that's what we're doing at xfinity. we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. and this includes our commitment to being on time. every time. that's why if we're ever late for an appointment, we'll credit your account $20.
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it's our promise to you. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. rishaad: a look at our top stories. investors weighing out whether good news -- bad news is good news or whether it is just bad. the latest set of data disappointed the markets. shares are heading into the red. the shanghai composite off 3%. mobile carriers are plunging in tokyo after the prime minister promised to tackle high cell phone fees. the prime minister said the government needed to address the burden of cell phone costs.
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.elco companies down germany has reinstated checks on its border with austria. it is trying to cope with the influx of asylum-seekers. trains between germany and austria have been suspended until 6:00 a.m. local time. the temporary measure is a signal to the rest of europe that germany needs help to cope with an big story on the market at the moment, shanghai stocks headed in a fairly volatile or its deep dive. that's right. we started out the day higher, and then we fell about 1% a short time ago. check out what is happening now with the shanghai composite. the index is down 3% right now. sharp decline here. it just happened in the past hour and a half or so. we have to watch this very closely.
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other markets, hong kong on the, advancing stimulus. now you see the bad economic data from the industrial data. that is perhaps spooking investors looking to sell. shanghai composite down. let's see how it -- it compares to other markets. hong kong is advancing. hong kong giving up some of its earlier gain. itsas given up all of earlier gain. we have seen a rotation. hang seng trading lower. sharp drop in shanghai continues. these are the big movers in the agent sharemarket now. course, delhi on energy. one of the few advancing. let's look at the hong kong listed shares moving on the downside. china galaxy, falling.
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watch this closely. the other big story we are following today, and japan. we have seen the market falling in the morning session. as they come back from the lunch break, i do claim of that -- decline of about one and a quarter percent. telecoms, kddi, docomo, all of them falling today. this as prime minister shinzo of a, we will try you more about that in a moment -- looking to to theg changes industry. that is the spooking investors. watched that in japan and we will keep an eye on what is happening in china. stay with us for more on that development. angie: why don't we do it right now? a deeper dive in japan's wireless carriers. they are the leading laggards on nikkei 225 today. ntt docomo, leading the decline
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today. yvonne man is here with how these companies are really reacting to a new edict from shinzo abe. what is it? yvonne: he says they need to reduce the cost of mobile phone bills in japan. and a big burden for a lot of households. right now, an individual smartphone plan might cost you 80-80 three dollars. similar to what you might see in the u.s., but quite big when compared to other parts of asia. that has sparked a lot of talk about lowering prices among japanese carriers. kddi, the number two preventer, announcing they were announcing fixed rates, but we have steam -- seen still the shares plunging. docomo plunging the most in seven years. the parent also falling. this could be a huge challenge moving forward for ntt docomo, which is japan's largest
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wireless carrier. the latest move by kddi could undermine docomo earnings outlook. could be depressed about ¥250 billion. angie: i guess it is the equivalent of an earthquake right now in that sector. it is almost as if she is on they saying, why don't -- shinzo abe is saying what are you subsidized the inflation goal of the present. but this is already a very saturated market here. these competitors and rivals are fighting for every customer. they are already struggling to raise any kind of revenue. if you take a look at subscriptions in japan's wireless carriers, that actually already exceeds japan's population. there's not much more you can do to get more, but just lower prices. docomo forecasting revenue could be about 37 billion this year,
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18% below its peak in -- a few years ago. angie: thank you for that. rishaad: in other news, the future of china's internet relies in services and not search. billions of dollars on the online to off-line push. all about the -- using the web to connect people to the real world of business. controversials risking a revolt among investors. the chairman wong chong says he will slow down on acquisitions. they have spent over $6 billion picking up everything from insurers to banks to action houses. -- fashion houses. they say it is time to focus on completing deals. subaru may sell more than 600,000 cars in north america this year, putting it i've years ahead of it midterm plan. -- five years ahead of its midterm plan.
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they are shipping mark r said the u.s., where deliveries have risen for 45 straight months. angie: back to our singapore election coverage. we are looking at what the outcome means for u.s. firms doing business there --. let's go to haslinda amin. we are going to get assessments from judith, she represents the american chamber of commerce, and it represents more than 700 firms. good to have you with us. the investment community was following the elections very closely. now that the ruling party has won the majority, it might be quite a relief. thank you.
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i would say that our members that this is reaffirmation there will be continuity in the years ahead. and the factors that make singapore such an attractive place for investors will be remaining in pace -- place. haslinda: one of the issues was foreign talent and foreign workers in the country. even american companies are watching the issue very closely. guest: we have all been watching the issue for the last four or five years. as a matter of fact, we did a special survey of members to find out what some of the leading issues were. hands down, the leading concern is will they be able to locate the singaporean talent they will need not just to man the companies but to lead the company's in the years and decades ahead. haslinda: is there a sense singapore will provide talent needed for american companies going forward? guest: the further up you go, the less confidence there is
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there will be enough singaporeans. they very positive investment climate and the demand is insatiable. because of that nature of investments, a lot of corporate headquarters, and functions being carried out here, we have perhaps a disproportionate demand for people are very highly held and very experienced. issue forit's a huge smes. let anecdotal evidence is there when you speak to the american firms and other foreign companies? how concerned are they about rising cost? guest: i think every investor is concerned about the cost. there are two ways of looking at it. once i've come at a of manpower would be higher than it would be in neighboring economies, but the productivity level is higher so it is actually a benefit. forr costs such as rent office space and residences have
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been coming down. the business community is very willing to have a dialogue with the government to discuss ways we can progress the issue further. such issues, will they stand in the way of american companies investing in singapore for the longer term? guest: i don't think so. one of our points of pride is that we are investors, we have been here for decades. some of our companies have been here for over a century. what investors are looking for are the same thing they look in any country. they're looking for predictability, transparency, rule of law, protection of intellectual property, availability of manpower. i'll be think singapore -- all of the things singapore offers are the same thing from the past. haslinda: we are closely watching the next two weeks, if there is any policy change, you would like to see? what would that be? guest: i think we are not looking so much a policy change, although people would love to have a little lightening up on
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the manpower restrictions. in is theo come prerogative of the host government. what we would like to see is the continuation of the powerful dialogue we have been able to have with the government of singapore, so when there are questions we can talk them through. haslinda: we have to leave it there. from the american chamber of commerce in singapore. the governmentg to announce the new covenant in the next two weeks. keep an eye on that. angie: thank you for that. haslinda amin in singapore. days away. next, how that is playing out on the market. "asia edge." returns into. ♪
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rishaad: checking on stories making headlines around the world. angie: jeremy carbon has begun
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his first week as u.k. labor theer by trying to stop party from fracturing. he made the first appointments to shadow cabinet after several senior lawmakers resign from the front-end -- bench. rishaad: the king of thailand is suffering a fever wrought on by a lung infection. it is the second statement to thete about this health of 87-year-old who is the world's longest reigning monarch. he is taking intravenous nourishment. he appeared last in public two , at that place that has been his home for the past years. thee: the notion of separation of powers does not exist in the territory, in a speech titled the correct understanding of hong kong's political system. they say that the chief executive has authority over the
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executive, legislative and judicial branches. democratic hong kong limited -- lawmakers criticized the speech. they saw differences. me, thank you.g we've got to talk about the fed. everybody is tired of will they won't they. why doesn't -- why don't they put them out of their misery? guest: i think some of the officials have the feeling, but i don't see any compelling economic need to raise rates now. there's a value to seeing how the month lays out. one of the things i've been looking out -- at is missing workers in the u.s..
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some of these workers may come back. case,d: why is that the why is the participation rate? because of the dynamic of employment itself is altered? guest: it's a big question, how much is structural. i think about half of it is reversible. some of it is due to aging. but some of it is due to a lack of engine power and demand in the economy. as the market tightens, we will into thee coming back labor force. that will keep a lid on which pressures will -- which will mean the pet -- fed will be patient. -- if doesn't mean that things go worse from here, that there really is no fire left in the firepower? guest: i don't agree with that. if the fed wants to restore its traction, the most important thing 2-d is get expectations up, which will allow it to reduce interest rates even with
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a zero lower bound. constraineds aren't , there are other things they can do. should abandonne the course early because you are afraid you'll get another fever later on. angie: they can afford to take a pass, we have seen the dollar strengthened. we have seen conditions tight and already. guest: that's right, they should look at a broad range of conditions. --are past the point where we should be looking at a whole range of indicators. david: why is there no inflation in the u.s.? if i remember correctly, two or people wereago, sounding the alarm. saying it is going to create so much inflation.
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it only created a bube in the stock market. but core inflation has remained very subdued over the course of this whole qe program. aret: and a lot of people abandoning old economic models and looking for new interesting explanations. i'm a traditionalist. i think demand has been weak. fiscal policy has actually been fairly moderate to even tight concern times. we had an incredible economic shock years ago. we know that it takes a long time to recover. we had quite an inhibited consumer and investment. the traditional accolades apply, once the market times, we will see rate inflation. anet yellen likes looking at broad range of indicators, i think the market is still less tight and strong than it was in june 2000 -- 2004. rishaad: everybody has employed
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monetary policy apart from the chinese. have another need for another stimulus, don't you think they are barking up the wrong tree? they should start questioning the efficacy and looking at a fiscal policy? guest: that's right, one thing we talked about is whether there was parallels across several economies. in japan, we can see how powerful fiscal tightening can be. i think one thing we have learned in the last seven years is how powerful fiscal policy can be, and also the limits of my monetary policy tightening. angie: but isn't it tied to political capital and will? you can pour a lot of money into an aging and disintegrating u.s. infrastructure right now, but we also have to do something about
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taxes. guest: clearly the u.s. is constrained by politics. you are absolutely right. buildings, equipment, factories are old. chinese, -- the japanese are all constrained except for the chinese because they can do it they like. guest: this is something we are seeing as very unorthodox. now we are seeing the advantages of that if you are in a slump. yvonne: how much can they we can see, is it going to be next year january? december, though i can't claim any great foresight for policy actions. possibly december will be when they do move. that is partly based on my view that china isn't falling apart. i do believe there is some pickup and -- in spending in china that will come through towards the end of the year that will stabilize everyone's nerves
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and put people in a little bit more of a relaxed mood to raise rates. rishaad: relaxed mood, nerves, calm, what are we talking about here? angie: thank you, simon. rishaad: up next, it is not the fed. going under the radar. we will hear from somebody rather flamboyant. the messaging system that is rather secretive. angie: protecting your privacy, after this short break. ♪
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rishaad: we are back with "asia edge." angie: it is a highly encrypted instant messaging app, being used by politicians and journalists and even spies. rishaad: it wants to be much
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more than a communication tool for those who are secretive. angie: the companies cofounder says it is suited for financial transactions in an area that is easier to monetize than social media. rishaad: stephen engle caught up with that in china. cofounder egokr does not do things like uni. she mutters around on an electric skateboard and came to china toting not a single phone, tablet or cell gadget here she was so off the grid we had a hard time all it -- finding her. the skateboard gave her away. guest: i've been lucky enough to be educated by the best hackers in the world. any database will be breached. reporter: she takes being incognito online seriously and claims her liquor at -- wicker app is the most secure. she has millions of customers,
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but she doesn't know who they are. messages are instantly deleted and cannot be traced. escaping this idea of the internet. what i mean by that, when you send a photo to me, it does not see any servers. the only place that photo comes up is on your device that you are the only one that had the key. no matter where it is bouncing around the world before it gets to you, none of those servers are seeing you. reporter: when does in on paranoia? you are wearing sunglasses, probably because of the retina scans. for humans. more super high technology would be able to get through this. but you are pictures and information you have online, the better. reporter: would you ever hand over any information? , because itn't doesn't exist. we knew we would be approached by law enforcement, not only from the u.s. other
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nationstates. we are the only application where users are truly anonymous. which makes it a little tougher for us to grow, because we are not downloading your address book and spamming your friends. but for human rights activists to be anonymous is so important when you are fighting dictators. we have activists in over 46 countries. reporter: do you have a next step as this grows? 10 million users, nearly. i'm sure a company needs secure technology that would be approaching you. guest: one of the areas is to secure financial transactions that right now run on at excel. any good hacker knows, there are millions of holes in ssl. habit on attacks a devcon every year, whether it is your heart monitor or keyboard. these are bluetooth connections that are unencrypted. reporter: r ashley madison. amazing toink it was
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be a billion dollar company go to zero. i don't think it'll be the first one. this is why this is a assist huddle -- business model that i think will succeed. reporter: he will hold your hand and educate you on the risk, whether it is on wheels are on the web. stephen engle, bloomberg, china. certainly being secretive there. angie: more news before we leave things. novak djokovic has won the u.s. open. winning his second title at flushing meadows, he -- 6, 4, 57 and then explore 6464. angie: he made all four grand slam titles for the first time this year, winning three. he has 10 titles. rishaad: roger federer has 17,
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but hasn't played a u.s. open final for something like six years. angie: i wonder if serena williams will be.
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